Portfolio updates: liquid fuels

Doubling down some more on Ascent (London Stamps)

Ascent Resources is a seemingly perpetually delayed natural gas project in Slovenia that I’ve added some more to, at 0.9p, a price slightly below the latest fundraise of 1p per consolidated share (1:20 on December 1). The idea here is that most of their potential investors either rejected the project earlier, or got burnt by previous delays and price falls, hence a paucity of buyers facing capitulating sellers. My guess is that the chance of success is higher than that implied by the depressed price, indeed it seems closer to success that at any time in the past when it was considerably more expensive. The main risks seem terminal failure and dilution from the effectively controlling stakeholder, Henderson, who though seem generally above board.

The weight is below my standard small cap entry size but the committed capital (acquisition cost) is a bit high at 2.5 times the standard size, indicating this should probably the last iteration of doubling down, however lower the price goes.

Booze is coming back

In Obliquity London, Diageo has replaced SAB Miller, previously sold due to a takeover. It looks neither very expensive nor cheap — and will probably fall on any profit warning — but I thought I lacked some booze exposure and there’s not much else in the larger cap segment listed in London.

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